Nifty Analysis: - Is bull or a bear

Today 20th Feb 2012 on  the occasion of  Mahashivratri market is closed so we sat down and dig history of  Nifty for past few months from where market has changed and found something interesting in the market. So we have noted it down for you and tried to put it in our words and explained it with images as follows: -

1. On 10th Jan 2012, Nifty showed first bull sign by breaking 4800 resistance level.

Nifty has not only broken resistance as shown in picture but also broke 50 EMA, down Trendline. It was double bottom kind of chart pattern we have seen.

2. Volume also begin to rise after that day as shown in the following picture: -

3. RSI was showing divergence when Nifty tested low point.

4. Nifty has broken its strong down trendline which has started in Nov 2010 when Nifty has tested 6335.



5. It look like Fresh bull market has started by breaking this trendline, it increases possibility Nifty to touch new highs in coming days.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Nifty: Will it be a contrarian trade at this time?

We are giving here one contrarian trade which we never want to have in our trade bag at this point of time. But wise trader must have atleast one contrarian trade against their own view.

Before that we look at what is happening in markets currently....

Market Update: 1. PCR showing strenght, all series PCR is 1.39 & current month is 1.64 which is bullish sign.
2. Open Interest is increasing with price appreciation which is positive sign too.
3. FIIs buying showing strenght ahead.
4. Nifty has broken its long term down trendline today, atleast it should cross by 2-3 % from here to form conform long term bull trend.
5. Overall market is in uptrend, & everyone is thinking same that market will go up & up
It is the time we should stay long with some kind of backup, & below trade can be good backup or u can say a contrarian trade.

Buy Nifty 5300 Put & sell 5100 & 5000 Puts (each strike option in equal quantity)

OR

We can have option strategy with bullish leg like Buy Nifty 5300 Put & Call both & sell 5100 Put. Total Premium Paid is 185, breakeven is above 5485

This strategy has limited loss (Max. 185 Points) & unlimited profit.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

When Reliance Power is lighting-up for a Buy Call?

Today from stock pick list we have identified one stock named Reliance Power stock symbol is ‘RPower’.

Following are its some of the strong factors which has made it selection of the day in our list.

Point No. 1

From past few days RPower is under our observation and on Friday its had made huge volume built up along with price appreciation as you can see in the following figure.



Point No. 2

The second factor is that its RSI is diverging with its price which means that relative strength with price is moving strong. Its RSI has crossed 40 as we can see in the following figure. It is a positive sign for stock.

Point No. 3

Its third factor is that MACD is moving towards zero of the histogram. This marks as a positive sign which enables the interest in going long for the stock.

When to buy?

So now its current trendline will break only after it crosses 76 and sustain for some time or on Monday if its closing is above 76 then it is a triggering point for buy call of RPower else we have to wait till Tuesday.

Momentum is not so strong right now but it will pick up once stock climb above 76 & short covering as well as fresh longs will come in this stock.

So one thing should remember is that go long in RPower only above 76.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Nifty Call: - Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd.

Buy Bajaj Auto Ltd. at current price 1675 with strict Stop Loss below 1650 for the Target of 1800.

Happy Trading....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Nifty Technical Call on SBI and Century Textile

We had a mix trading this week, Nifty failed to cross 5400 which has became strong resistance now. Open Interest in Nifty is continuously falling from last four days, probably more traders are taking exit from Nifty and sitting on cash and observing the complete situation, we are experiencing lot of volatility in Global Markets as well. Once the picture is clear, Open Interest in Nifty or we can say trader’s interest in stock markets will come back again, till then no fresh position should not be taken in Nifty.

On stock front, very interesting thing is happening in SBI; we observed Downward-sloping reverse Head & Shoulders pattern is being formed.

Fig: - 1 SBI Day chart

In Fig. 1, it is clearly shown that volumes are low near top comparatively at bottom; we guess some kind of long term buying has happened in month of Sept-Oct 2011 when SBIN made bottom. Its Downward-sloping reverse Head & Shoulders pattern is forming now, but buying in this counter should come after some confirmation (breaking of neckline).

So what kind of confirmation we need for it???

RSI is near 55-57 and ADX is decreasing, overall SBIN is not in momentum, but we think when it cross 2000 level, more buying force will come and this will take SBIN in uptrend momentum.

Our call for SBIN is to take Long position above 1990 which is almost its last peak with strict stop loss below 1940, this stock can rally 2160-2200 in near term. Some profit can be booked in this range and remaining can be hold till 2500 level.

Other stock pick is Century Textile

One can buy this counter above 341 with strict Stop Loss around 326-328, Target for Century Textile is 360-370 in near term.

Why we are bullish in this stock???

It is crossing its 200 EMA and crossed 200 DMA, and its momentum is very high, ADX is increasing with price and RSI is at 65, also Accumulation & Distribution indicator is at its six months high.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Nifty Analysis: - What are the Volumes in the stock market?

Buying and selling of stock activity done by person are measured as volumes in share market. Volumes can be defined as share traded (buy or sell) for the period of the day. For example if buyer buys 500 shares from seller then volume will increase by 500.

Following figures represents volume figures for each stock’s traded as Nifty gainers: -

Fig: volume figure

Below figure shows chart of NIFTY and shows buy and sell i.e. high and low vertical bar of volumes at the bottom of the diagram.

Fig: price and volumes on charts

It is represented as vertical histogram just below the price indicator as no. of share traded at different prices.

High bars on the volumes shows more purchase (interest of people) done on the stock whereas low bars on the volumes shows more selling of people done on the stock.

Volumes are basically totally independent of the price. So a volume adds a great value to be secondarily observed after looking at price. As long as volumes are increasing the current trend of the price will stay. This is the indicator that cannot be manipulated like the price.

Generally price and volume indicator should move hand in hand which means if price is increasing and volume is falling means it is an indication of red flag that current trend is going to reverse. In other words if price of the stock is high and volume of the stocks is low then it means interest of person have reduced in the stock and price of the stock will fall which is reverse in the trend.

Fig: trend from high to low

And vice-versa for low price and high volume.

Fig: trend from low to high

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

NIFTY Buy Call for Hindalco Industries

Hello Friend, Did u made some good profit in last few days in stock market???

We were constantly saying from the last few days that Nifty is making double bottom and we did long in Nifty near 4940, we booked profit around 5380 on last Friday. As we said Nifty is making lower top and lower bottom since Jan 2011, bearish trendline as seen in Fig. 1, it had tested six times to this trendline which is

Fig: 1

visible in chart. We guess some profit booking will happen near this trendline as it is strong resistance for Nifty.

Buy Call: Hindalco Industries

Hindalco had been underperformer recently, as you see in the following Fig. 2 it touched 120 levels in few days back and it is recovering like anything.

Fig: 2

It had a gap-up opening on Friday and it has broken 50 DMA and EMA also.

Volumes were very high on Friday, some strong hands definitely entered in this stock. This stock is making lower top and lower bottom and it is in serious downtrend, will its trend reverse? It is a big question  as if for now, but we trader must take some risk while trading in stock markets, so we guess to buy?

Fig:

One can buy this counter near 138-140 level with strict stop loss below 134; target will be 160-163.

Happy Trading ....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Nifty Technical Analysis view for this week 17th Oct 2011.

Hi to all,

In the last week we have seen a good rally in Nifty, which started from 4725 and ended at 5150. Many of our investor’s friends where partying and probably they are ready to pump more money thinking we have BOTTOMED OUT.


Fig: Nifty Day Chart

So have the good days started or is it again just a temporary bounce? So our tradingkamai.com started looking in to technicals. Always remember there are 3 kinds of people in the market: -

• Bullish and optimistic.
• Bearish and pessimistic.
• The smart guy who waits for signal and confirmation to enter in to the trade.

The last section of people must have bought nifty above 4940 because of technical confirmation. If you remember our last week blog we have talked about double bottom formation click here to see the blog post http://tradingkamai.blogspot.com/2011/10/technical-view-for-week-10-14-oct-2011.html.

Now some people are thinking that NIFTY would not cross 5175 as it’s a strong resistance. So some of them booked profits on Friday, due to which we saw a decrease in open interest.

Now many traders / investors / fund houses are waiting for the green signal or confirmation for buying. The confirmation will happen when NIFTY closes above 5175 with good volume and sustains there for 4 to 5 days or it penetrates more than 1% above 5175 in intraday.

Courtesy :- http://www.veryicon.com

If the above goes true we must see 5300 level in coming days.

Now let’s go to something stock specific: -

Reliance has broken its 860 level resistance. This resistance was its last months (i.e. September 2011) high. This breakout is also supported with strong momentum in uptrend. This price pattern is showing fresh seed wave formation and is an indication of strong reversal for reliance.

This also signifies it has broken its bear journey which had started from 1065 to 712.


Fig: -Reliance Day Chart

So our thought on reliance hence forth is 888 is next resistance , in short term to medium term it can be between 900-950 and for medium and long term it can reach 1050-1100.

Earn 5 to 6 % return in coming week, our call B******** buy at *** and book profit at **** with stop loss at ***

Interested on the above call or interested in training on technical analysis give us a call on 09920115511 or mail us on kpg23in@hotmail.com / trading.kamai@yahoo.

View our following video on explanation of What isTechnical Analysis: -



See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

NIFTY Call: - Book 50% Profit in Educomp

Book 50% profit in Educomp @ 278 and trail Stop Loss to 270 for the Target of 288.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

NIFTY Call for Tata Motors

Buy Tata Motors above 164 with a Stop Loss of 160 for the Target of 177.

Happy Trading ....

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Buy Tata Motors

Buy Tata Motors above 164 with a Stop Loss of 158 for the Target of 172 and 185.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Technical Analysis for Monday 19 Sept. 2011

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Technical Call for Monday: Buy Patni Computers (PCS)

Buy Patni Computers (PCS) only above 304

with strict Stop Loss of 299 on closing basis and Stop Loss for Intraday traders is 285

book profit for PCS near 340.

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Weekly Technical Analysis for Nifty

View our this week's stock performance sheet for our given calls.

Also view the following video for Weekly Technical Analysis on Nifty: -



See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Technical view 27 July 2011

Nifty has collapsed today, closed at 5574.35. Many index stocks were in red, volume has been increased, its all bearish sign. Major support for Nifty exists around 5500-5520. We hope it will recover in coming days.

Buy Kotakbank around 460-465 with strick stop loss below 450 for target 510-520 in short term.

Happy Trading .....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Technical view 25 July 2011

We have seen good up move in Nifty on last friday, closed at 5645.55. Any opening above 5670 fresh bull run can happen, one can go long in Nifty above 5670 with stop loss below 5620 for target 5750 and 5900.

ACC looks very good on chart, buy this counter for target 1020 and 1047. Stop loss will be around 970.

Buy Andhrabank above 138 with stop loss at 135 for target 140.50 and 151.

Happy Trading .....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Technical view 20 July 2011

Nifty has managed to close above 5600 mark, at 5624.30, its good sign for bulls. Nifty has strong resistance between 5660-5680 range, we can have fresh long if Nifty closes above this level with strong volume.
HCC closed in green at 34.50, its higher closing in last 2 months. It can be buy candidate above 35 with stop loss around 33.50-33.80 for short term target 39 and medium term target 45.

Happy Trading .....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html

Techinical view 19 July 2011

Nifty is moving in very tight range, Volume and Open Interest are also in declined mode. In that case, its becoming very difficult for short term traders to make money in this kind of market. If anybody is long in Nifty, he/she should maintain stop loss around 5500.

Our long call in PFC has been initiated on friday around 210,short term trader can book profit near 220-221 and medium term trader can trail stop loss around 214 if it crosses 220 level and stay long until it reaches 250.

Happy Trading ....

See syllabus for Technical analysis training in Mumbai,India.

Please read our disclaimers before investing http://tradingkamai.blogspot.in/p/disclaimer.html