Nifty Analysis: - What going in NIFTY?

It has been a complete 1 month we have expressed our views on the Nifty. Our eyes were continuously on the moments of Nifty. Following we have listed our observation in points: -

1. Nifty index consistently taking support near 200 EMA from the last one month, we have also witness Open Interest is coming down in this month but from last 2 days OI is increasing again.

2. Volume is also very good in frontline stocks like banking stocks, its positive thing ahead.



3. Most important, when Nifty started coming down from 5600, it has making lower tops with down trendline which is shown in figure.



this down trendline tested thrice & confirmed its importance.

When this down trendline breaks by Nifty at upperside direction, Nifty's next intermediate uptrend will continue.

4. By seeing Nifty chart with RSI, it’s clearly showing divergence with price from last 6 months, we can predict Nifty is gaining momentum



Since most of the things in the market moves on prediction we too hope by looking at the technical chart that in coming days Nifty will reach new heights.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets

Nifty Analysis: - What do technical analysis says about NIFTY?

For the latest on Nifty I have considered three most important factors as follows which will give a clue where Nifty will go in the coming time.

1. FAN PRINCIPLE (Trendlines)

By using Fan principle trendlines, we can say that trend has definitely changed. When Nifty rallied & started coming back, it has taken support at 1st trendline but after some time it has finally broke this trendline & tested 2nd trendline. By seeing this, we can assume that this 1st trendline will be next resistance & 2nd trendline will be support. Fan principle says until 3rd trendline, no clear cut downtrend continues.

2.  FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT

We joined from where Nifty began its rally i.e. 4315 & 5630 & draw Fibonacci retracement. One can see that Nifty is at its previous rally's 38.2% retracement now; it needs to stay above this level to resume its rally to upward direction. Before that I want tell u that these retracements suggests the support & resistance for next move.

3. Moving Averages.

Moving averages is the most popular indicator among traders & it is very easy to find. Here I’m showing chart with 50 & 200 Exponential Moving averages. Many traders forecast their trading strategies by using EMA & there try different EMA like 20, 40, 50, 100, 200 etc. I believe that these two moving averages (50 & 200) are very important for medium to long term trading strategies.

Nifty is trading near 50 & 200 EMA now & I feel we will see new recent highs like 5900 if Nifty manages to stay above 5200 & built up some buying near this level.

By reading F&O data, we observe open interest increased significantly & bulls bears both are equally strong for now. Next coming few trading sessions will conform who will take control & define next directional move. So it is very clear that Nifty is at very crucial point & we must wait for 2-3 days to decide our trading strategy. (For safer side we can go long above 5300 or long at this level with strict stop loss below 5200 on closing basis.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets

Nifty Analysis: - Will Infosys rise?

Today we have come up with one of the known stock called Infosys (Infy) from the IT sector. Here we have a history from September 2011 to till date i.e. February 2012. Following are some of the points which has developed interest in our technical analysis experts to speak up: -

Infy started its uptrend after making double bottom near 2200 & rallied till 2900 where it gave its momentum & stuck up in sideways movement.

After consolidation of nearly 3 1/5 months, it has come out from range bound activity.

Volume is also thin when Infy stuck up in range, volume will increase as Infy continuing its uptrend.

ADX (Average Directional Index) is rising since resistance level got broken. ADX shows how strengthen the momentum.

If we follow Fibonacci retracement theory, we can see that when Infy’s recent uptrend got disturbed & when it started coming down, it has tested 50% retracement level twice.

By using Fibonacci retracement, we can draw next targets for Infy is First Target 3190 & Second Target 3470.

We can buy this stock above 3000 (on closing basis only) by keeping stop loss below 2900 with targets of 3190 & 3470 in coming few days.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets

Nifty Analysis: - Is bull or a bear

Today 20th Feb 2012 on  the occasion of  Mahashivratri market is closed so we sat down and dig history of  Nifty for past few months from where market has changed and found something interesting in the market. So we have noted it down for you and tried to put it in our words and explained it with images as follows: -

1. On 10th Jan 2012, Nifty showed first bull sign by breaking 4800 resistance level.

Nifty has not only broken resistance as shown in picture but also broke 50 EMA, down Trendline. It was double bottom kind of chart pattern we have seen.

2. Volume also begin to rise after that day as shown in the following picture: -

3. RSI was showing divergence when Nifty tested low point.

4. Nifty has broken its strong down trendline which has started in Nov 2010 when Nifty has tested 6335.



5. It look like Fresh bull market has started by breaking this trendline, it increases possibility Nifty to touch new highs in coming days.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets.

Nifty: Will it be a contrarian trade at this time?

We are giving here one contrarian trade which we never want to have in our trade bag at this point of time. But wise trader must have atleast one contrarian trade against their own view.

Before that we look at what is happening in markets currently....

Market Update: 1. PCR showing strenght, all series PCR is 1.39 & current month is 1.64 which is bullish sign.
2. Open Interest is increasing with price appreciation which is positive sign too.
3. FIIs buying showing strenght ahead.
4. Nifty has broken its long term down trendline today, atleast it should cross by 2-3 % from here to form conform long term bull trend.
5. Overall market is in uptrend, & everyone is thinking same that market will go up & up
It is the time we should stay long with some kind of backup, & below trade can be good backup or u can say a contrarian trade.

Buy Nifty 5300 Put & sell 5100 & 5000 Puts (each strike option in equal quantity)

OR

We can have option strategy with bullish leg like Buy Nifty 5300 Put & Call both & sell 5100 Put. Total Premium Paid is 185, breakeven is above 5485

This strategy has limited loss (Max. 185 Points) & unlimited profit.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets.

Nifty Call: - SUN TV

SUN TV is looking good we have seen approximate 6% of growth today on 1st Feb 2012, one more good day for this stock & it will zoom up to 350-360 level.in coming time. One can pour hands in it to get decent return for it.

Currently running at 325 on NSE. Volume is also looking good for SUN TV.

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets.

Technical Analysis for NIFTY on 30th Jan 2012

In yesterday's trade we saw some selling in Nifty with open interest decreased (it is quiet  normal to see open interest decreasing with selling, no need to worry) & PCR and other data still not showing weak trend yet. This is positive side for Nifty, let's see other side or we can say negative side below,

Nifty once again failed to cross 200 DMA, as per Bar chart analysis Nifty showing 123 reversal,

RSI coming down from overbought level, volume is higher than previous few days.

These are negative points & can take Nifty in down trend.

Technical Analysis is always based on If analysis, so we are doing the same

If Nifty manage to stay above 5040-5060, then Nifty will keep its up trend intact. if Nifty will pierce today's negativeness & close above 5135, an immediate short term up trend will continue till 5400.

It will be interesting to see what happens next....

Disclosure: It is to safe to assume that we may or may not have personal interest in views expressed above, we may hold these stocks in personal portfolio, traders should take own risk while trading in stock markets.